Performance(02)
/ Capital Compounding
/ Investor Archive
Investor Update
Dear Investors
I plan to send a short monthly update whenever there are meaningful developments. These will typically be shared at the end of each month. As a starting point, I am sending one now.
Markets generate constant noise. The work is in staying focused on signal. I limit myself to a small group of businesses that I can reasonably value. My threshold for what qualifies as “cheap” is intentionally high, because margin of safety is what creates resilience.
As Charlie Munger said, “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” And, “Time discovers truth.” Prices can move sharply in either direction, but over time, value asserts itself.
I would also like to clarify an important point for long-term compounding. It is not advisable to mirror individual positions outside the fund.
A holding only makes sense when viewed within the full architecture of the portfolio: position sizing, hedging, cash levels, opportunity cost, and—most importantly—the discipline to do nothing when nothing should be done. Removing a position from this context strips away the framework that makes it rational and safe.
As Seneca wrote, “If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable.” In investing, the process is the port. Compounding works only when decisions sit within a coherent system, not when taken piecemeal. The edge is in the framework, not in individual trades.
Acc 2 portfolio is the reference account, and Acc 1 mirrors it.
Portfolio Positioning
We remain concentrated in businesses we understand and can value. When valuation is unclear, we hold cash or use hedges.
Current core holdings include:
- Evolution AB – Category leader in live casino infrastructure with durable economics
- JD.com – Scaled e-commerce and logistics platform with margin improvement potential
- Adobe – Creative and enterprise software with recurring revenue and pricing power
- Core Scientific – Compute and mining infrastructure operating at scale
- Green Brick Partners – Disciplined homebuilder with exposure to housing undersupply
- Graphic Packaging – Paperboard packaging in resilient end markets
- Duos Technologies
- Smart Eye AB – Driver monitoring and ADAS software integrated with OEM platforms
- NewLake Capital Partners – Specialty REIT offering income and optionality
- Hedges
- Inverse Tesla ETF
- Short innovation factor ETF
We also use select derivatives for risk management, including short puts at levels where we are comfortable owning the underlying.
Trade Highlight: Fluence Energy
We exited Fluence Energy after approximately four weeks.
Average purchase price: $10.43
Sale VWAP: $19.8471
Realized Gains
Acc 1
Sold 27,450 shares at $19.8471
Realized gain: $258,499.40
Acc 2
Sold 207,545 shares at $19.8471
Realized gain: $1,954,472.02
Combined realized gains: $2,212,971.41
Rationale for Exit
The original thesis was sound: tight power markets, ERCOT dynamics, and increasing demand for grid-scale storage.
However, the stock moved materially ahead of fundamentals. It appreciated more than 100% in a short period and entered our fair value range. At that point, the margin of safety disappeared.
Above those levels, expected returns relied more on narrative than on evidence we could responsibly underwrite.
As Munger often said, “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid.” This was a moment to avoid being pulled into speculation.
Outlook
We will redeploy capital when opportunities meet our standards for value and safety. Until then, patience remains a position.
Thank you for your continued trust.
Warm regards, Neel
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